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Prediction for CME (2025-12-22T10:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-22T10:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43565/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the east as seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2A, and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs likely associated a minor filament eruption occurring near the southeast of Active Region 14316 (S10E30) as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as an eruption/lifting along the center filament channel with dimming (193) along the east and west flanks of the eruptive site seen around 2025-12-22T09:15Z with bright post eruptive arcade activity. The SDO AIA 304 imagery also shows a broad area of brightening around the filament channel after the eruption. No arrival signature seen in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-25T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51223
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Dec 2025, 1251UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 026 PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 027

...

Coronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on
SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 10:36 UTC on Dec 22, which is possibly associated with a filament eruption around 09:00 UTC on the SE quadrant
(S02 E37) of the Sun. It has a projected speed of about 400 km/s and a projected width of about 90 deg. A glancing blow, associated with this CME, may be expected at the Earth on Dec 25-26. ...

Lead Time: 46.48 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2025-12-24T00:31Z

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